气候变冷了吗（气候变暖 中国）

　　Two millennia of foreign invasions and internal wars in China were driven more by cooling climate than by feudalism, class struggle or bad government, a bold study released Wednesday argued. 　　Food shortages severe enough to spark civil turmoil or force hordes of starving nomads to swoop down from the Mongolian steppes were consistently linked to long periods of colder weather, the study found. In contrast, the Central Kingdom's periods of stability and prosperity occurred during sustained warm spells, the researchers said. 　　Theories that weather-related calamities such as drought, floods and locust plagues steered the unraveling or creation of Chinese dynasties are not new. But until now, no one had systematically scanned the long sweep of China's tumultuous history to see exactly how climate and Chinese society might be intertwined. 　　Chinese and European scientists led by Zhang Zhibin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing decided to compare two sets of data over 1,900 years. 　　Digging into historical archives, they looked at the frequency of war, price hikes of rice, locust plagues, droughts and floods. For conflict, they distinguished between internal strife and external wars. At the same time, they reconstructed climate patterns over the period under review. 　　The team said the findings demonstrate that climate change can lead to unrest and warfare. "Historians commonly attribute dynastic transitions or cycles to the quality of government and class struggles," according to the paper, published in the British journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B. "However, climatic fluctuation may be a significant factor interacting with social structures in affecting the rise and fall of cultures and dynasties." But the historical evidence they found points to global cooling, not to global warming, as the culprit. 　　法新社7月14日文章，原题：研究表明，中国的内乱外扰是由气候引起的。本周三发表的一个研究结果大胆提出，两千年来中国遭受的内乱外扰，根源都在于气候变冷，而不是封建主义、阶级斗争或统治阶级腐败。 　　研究发现，蒙古草原长时间的寒冷天气造成的粮食严重短缺，足以引发民间动乱，饥饿驱使牧民们成群结队地四处抢夺食物。而相比之下，在持续温暖的气候作用下，中央王国繁荣稳定。 　　有关干旱、洪涝、蝗灾等气候灾难导致中国朝代更替的理论并不新奇，但在此研究之前，没有人系统审视过中国动荡的历史长河，准确找出气候和中国社会发展之间可能存在的千丝万缕的联系。 　　由中国科学院张知彬（音）领导的中欧科学家小组决定比较两组1900多年前的数据。 　　他们深入研究了历史档案，查看战争发起频率、大米价格暴涨、病虫害以及瘟疫、旱涝等情况，为了避免干扰，还将这些数据分为内乱和外扰两部分。同时，他们还重现了对应事情的气候状况。 　　研究结果显示，气候变化导致内乱和外扰。历史学家总是把中国的朝代更迭与政权的腐败无能和阶级斗争联系在一起，在英国《皇家学会学报B》发表的这篇论文这样说道。不过，气候波动可能是影响社会结构和文化进程的一个重要因素。只不过该研究认为影响社会变动的罪魁祸首是全球变冷而不是变暖。